The Movie Waffler Oscars Odds Update After the Golden Globes | The Movie Waffler

Oscars Odds Update After the Golden Globes


The 78th annual Golden Globes just happened. Over the last couple of years, many Oscars odds front-runners lost some ground after the other films did well at the Globes. A good example of this is how Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was the odds-on favorite all fall and winter but fell on the odds board, and subsequently lost.

So, given this year's outcomes, will there be any significant changes to the race for major Academy Awards?

Oscar for Best Picture

The odds-on favorite in Vegas and online outlets have had Nomadland in the top spot for months. Currently, Nomadland is -220 at the sportsbook Bookmaker. Now, a clear-cut favorite to the Oscar for best picture,

So, the win at the Golden Globes did impact the Academy Awards odds.

Poor showings also impacted the odds, or at least it seems. Films like The Trial of the Chicago 7 are up quite a bit. Previously, I saw odds on this historical drama at +600, or 6 to 1. Now, it's up to +225, which is quite a move.

Other films that were at the top of the list as well, such as Mank, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, and News of the World, have all fallen drastically.

Mank, at one point, was also around +600. Now its odds for Best Picture are +1800, dead even with One Night in Miami. Da 5 Bloods was listed around +1200, and it's now fallen to +7000 (70 to 1). Tenet also looked like it might have a chance for a while, but it's now an uber longshot at +25000

Oscar for Best Director

You always have to wonder if they'll dish out Best Picture and Best Director to the same film, or if there is another exceptional film, they'll give the award for Best Director as a sort of consolation —almost second-place—prize.

Well, at the Golden Globes, Nomadland won both. Another amazing aspect of this win is Chloe Zhao is the first woman to win Best Director at the Golden Globes since Barbara Streisand won for her direction of Yentl back in 1984.

So, it was somewhat of a historic moment.

Back to the topic at hand, Nomadland seemed to stand out enough at the Globes to win both, but can it repeat this at the Oscars? Or will it only win for Best Picture, and perhaps Aaron Sorkin or Emerald Fennell will win Best Director for their work on The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman?

Lee Isaac Chung was one of the leading contenders for Minari. But he didn't even get a nomination at the Globes, and his odds have fallen down to +2200 to win the same award from the Academy. On the flip side, Chloe Zhao has been catapulted into the top spot with massive odds of -450. This means the sportsbooks are so sure she'll win for Best Director that you have to risk 450 dollars per hundred that you want to win.

David Fincher is +950 for Mank, and the next closest is Aaron Sorkin at +1400.

Oscar for Best Actor

The award for best actor went to Chadwick Boseman for his leading role in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Boseman's new odds are -500 at most shops, but he's a whopping -1200 at Bookmaker. -1200 is an implied probability of 92.3%. So, I think we can safely predict the winner of this category —thanks, Golden Globes!

Sorry, Anthony Hopkins, Riz Ahmed, and Gary Oldman; not this year.


Oscar for Best Actress

Andra Day took home the Globes award for her role in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Viola Davis has been the front-runner to win the Oscar for Best Actress, but now Andra Day is neck and neck with Viola to win the Academy Award as Viola Davis' odds have dropped some.

Surprisingly, even after Andra Day winning, Carey Mulligan is +135 at Bookmaker, making her the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actress. Some other shops have her at +170, with Viola Davis still the leader at +160.